When there are no catastrophes
21-11-2024 | Posted by Joaquín Martí
Every year, there are a few catastrophes. Some are directly caused by humans, like wars; others, which we call natural disasters, may have triggers beyond our control, though we do have the capacity to influence their consequences. All come with costs in terms of lives and infrastructure.
From Spain, some natural disasters occur far away, like the Caribbean hurricanes, the floods in Derna (Libya) in 2023 or the Appalachians in 2024; we only hear of them through the media. Others are closer to home, such as the recent floods in Valencia or the landslide that has just buried the AP-66 motorway in Asturias.
Whether near or far, natural disasters are striking and understandably attract attention when they unfold. This focus is inevitable, but the crucial time to consider them is when they are not occurring, so we can prepare properly for when they do. Unfortunately, measures tend to be taken only afterwards and, at best, they serve only for the future.
And not always, at that. The floods Derna suffered in 1941, and particularly in 1959, convinced the authorities of the need to build dams on the Wadi Derna to control its flow during such events. Two earth-fill dams with “morning glory” spillways were built in the 1970s for this purpose, but due to either inadequate design or maintenance deficiencies, the heavy rains of September 2023 led to the failure of both, resulting in over 10,000 deaths and the destruction of much of the city.
Similarly, the great flood in Valencia in 1957 (a recurrent phenomenon in the area, with 25 similar events recorded since 1321) caused nearly a hundred deaths and widespread destruction. As a result, works were undertaken to divert the course of the Turia River to the south, with capacity to handle a considerable flow. However, the Plan Sur did not address the Poyo Ravine, which has now led to over two hundred deaths and immense destruction.
There is no need to go on, but it is clear that the same applies to earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes, landslides, etc. Besides avoiding human losses, which are always unacceptable, from a purely economic standpoint, prevention is usually cheaper than cure. This is why it is advisable to think about such events not when they are happening, when it is already too late to act, but when they are latent, so that we are prepared when they arise.
It is also worth highlighting that many of these events could become more frequent or extreme with climate change, reinforcing the importance and urgency of taking them into account.
Principia has amassed considerable experience in studying such events before they happen, in order to manage their consequences, including earthquakes, tsunamis, winds, explosions, floods, and other disasters, both in terms of their likelihood of occurrence and their impact. If we can be of any help in this area, it would be a pleasure to contribute.
